"As South Carolina goes, so goes the rest of the South." Those were the words of late South Carolina GOP Chairman Dan Ross in 1979 when the South Carolina Republican Party officially established its presidential primary beginning in 1980.
Since then and with every presidential election cycle since, except one, South Carolina has always gotten it right.
They got it right when Ronald Reagan defeated John Connally in 1980, when George H.W. Bush defeated Pat Robertson after his surprise Iowa caucuses showing in 1988, when Bob Dole stopped Pat Buchanan following his New Hampshire primary win in 1996, when George W. Bush defeated John McCain in 2000, when John McCain beat back a challenge from Mike Huckabee in 2008, and when Donald Trump defeated Marco Rubio in 2016.
Dan Ross was right. With only one exception, the winner of the South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary has gone on to win the South and the GOP nomination. And since its inception, no Republican has ever been elected president without winning the South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary.
No other state in the country has a better record of picking Republican presidents than South Carolina.
In 1979, when the South Carolina GOP Presidential Primary was established, South Carolina was still largely a Democrat state, especially at the state level.
I actually had the privilege of serving on the S.C. GOP Executive Committee back then that made the decision to put on our first presidential primary. We envisioned the presidential primary as a way to build the Republican Party at the grassroots level.
In addition, by having the primary on a Saturday, we called it the "Working People's Primary," as there should be little excuse for not voting.
Eight years later, I was state GOP chairman. President Ronald Reagan saw the wisdom of what Southern Republican leaders were trying to do and, in 1987, invited all the Southern state GOP chairmen to meet with him at the White House.
Over lunch in the Cabinet room, President Reagan expressed his vision as to how the Super Tuesday primary could be used to strengthen the GOP at the grassroots level in the Deep South.
Then, President Reagan looked at me across the table, and with all of the other state GOP chairmen looking on, asked, "Why is South Carolina different? Why are you holding your primary on a Saturday, three days before everyone else on Super Tuesday?"
I said, "Mr. President, in South Carolina, we are the working people's party. And by having a primary on a Saturday, there is no excuse for working people not voting."
Reagan smiled and said, "I like that." It's a moment I'll never forget.
Here's where the candidates currently stand in South Carolina:
- Donald Trump: The former president has built out a strong statewide organization and secured endorsements from grassroots activists in every county of the state. Much of this is to the credit of former U.S. Ambassador to Switzerland Ed McMullen, who quarterbacked Trump's 2016 presidential primary victory in the Palmetto State. At the state level, Trump was endorsed early on by popular South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster; Sen. Lindsey Graham; Reps. Russell Fry, William Timmons, and Joe Wilson; and South Carolina Speaker of the House Murrell Smith. Other statewide officials to endorse Trump include Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, State Treasurer Curtis Loftis, Attorney General Alan Wilson, and Secretary of State Mark Hammond. McMaster's enthusiastic support cannot be overstated. He is widely popular among the party faithful and, at the end of his term, will be the longest-serving governor in South Carolina history.
- Nikki Haley: Expected to run well in Iowa and New Hampshire, Haley's supporters view South Carolina as the best place for the state's former governor to secure an outright win over Trump. Respected South Carolina state Sens. Shane Massey, Larry Grooms, Katrina Shealy, and Chip Campsen recently endorsed the former U.S. ambassador to the U.N. Former Rep. Gresham Barrett, who lost a 2010 GOP runoff for governor to Haley, also recently joined the Haley team in a big surprise. Early supporters include former U.S. Ambassador to Canada David Wilkins and Rep. Ralph Norman. Norman has been a big help to Haley since the outset. The no-nonsense conservative is widely popular with the GOP base. Haley has two top-notch consultants in Walter Whetsell, who recently engineered the GOP surprise win in the Charleston mayor's race, and Katon Dawson, a former state GOP chairman. A recent Beaufort fundraiser organized by young entrepreneur Drayton Wade drew a large crowd.
- Ron DeSantis: The Florida governor has built out an impressive list of supporters at the grassroots level throughout the state, including state senators, sheriffs, mayors, school board members, and party activists. State Sen. Josh Kimbrell of Spartanburg has led efforts to build a solid organization in the Upstate, and the recent endorsement of state Rep. Tom Hartnett of Charleston — whose father, Tommy Hartnett, was the GOP's first congressman since Reconstruction in the Lowcountry — was a big get along the coast. Florida first lady Casey DeSantis, a graduate of the College of Charleston and whose parents live in South Carolina, has been a hit on the campaign trail. One of the best strategic moves to date was the pro-DeSantis Never Back Down super PAC bringing on South Carolina operative Randy Page as its state director. The former aide to Gov. David Beasley and chief of staff of Bob Jones University has an unmatched Rolodex of South Carolina conservative activists.
- Vivek Ramaswamy: The conservative firebrand brought down the house with his remarks last March at the Palmetto Family Council's presidential forum. His campaign has taken him to churches, charter schools, and barbecue joints. And he has headlined county party fundraising dinners. Most notably, though, is his appeal to young South Carolina voters and the size of the crowds he has drawn on Palmetto State college campuses. State Rep. Matt Leber, a decorated combat veteran, is Ramaswamy's state campaign chairman. Ramaswamy also landed seasoned political operative Christopher Slick as state director.
There will be a total of seven candidates on the ballot, each of whom paid a $50,000 filing fee. Of the lesser-known candidates, Texas businessman and pastor Ryan Binkley has impressed, with one GOP official telling me they see him as a future senator from the Lone Star State.
The big wild card is Sen. Tim Scott and his voters. Where do they go? Many believe South Carolina would be a different story had the hugely popular Scott stayed in the presidential race.
Current South Carolina state GOP Chairman and Republican National Committee Co-Chairman Drew McKissick expects close to 750,000 South Carolinians voting in the primary. Another wild card is the Lowcountry Sportsmen. The group of farmers, hunters, and fishermen provided a big boost to the ground games of both Newt Gingrich and Trump, with CBS News' Major Garrett dubbing one 2016 event of 4,600 people in an area known as Dove Field "The Conservative Woodstock."
The GOP presidential candidates understand the pivotal role that South Carolina will play. After Iowa and New Hampshire, all eyes will be on South Carolina. As Drew McKissick put it, "We are the graveyard or the booster rocket to presidential campaigns."
South Carolina is once again leading in selecting a GOP presidential nominee, as it has since 1980. It's a responsibility that South Carolinians take seriously. I, for one, believe South Carolina will get it right once again. As South Carolina goes, so does the GOP nomination.
Van Hipp is Chairman of American Defense International, Inc. He is the former Deputy Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Army and author of "The New Terrorism: How to Fight It and Defeat It." He is the 2018 recipient of the Queen Elizabeth II Sept. 11 Garden Leadership Award for National Security. Read Van Hipp's Reports — More Here
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