What the Trump Caucasus Peace Deal Means for Europe, America

What the Trump Caucasus Peace Deal Means for Europe, America

A nation long known for its historic narrative of struggle, Armenia is repositioning itself as a new regional hub of peace, innovation, and partnership.

So far, 2025 appears to be a bumper year for President Donald J. Trump's global peace-making efforts. The recent Gaza deal, if successful, is one for the history books.

He also brought the full weight of U.S. policy and his dealmaking acumen to bear to facilitate peace in Africa, the Indian subcontinent, and East Asia.

In a milestone that is sure to reshape the dynamics of the Caucasus, the strategic nexus between Europe and Asia sandwiched between the Black Sea and the Caspian, Trump helped to complete a deal long in the making between Armenia and Azerbaijan, bringing an end to the longstanding conflict over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, occupied by Armenia since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Clearly, both Azerbaijan and Armenia, and their leaders, President Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, deserve full credit, after Baku won the 35 year-long Karabakh war.

As part of this peace deal, a Strategic Working Group with Azerbaijan was created, which guarantees exclusive development rights to the Zangezur Corridor, a passage through Nagorno-Karabakh,now to be called the Trump

Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP).

These developments, while crucial to the Caucasus and the post-Soviet space, will have much wider geopolitical ramifications, as peace and American economic engagement will allow oil and gas industries and transportation networks to expand across the region.

Amongst the parties most interested in this peace agreement should be the European states, as a surge of Western influence in the region could allow for new ways to address Europe’s economic and security concerns.

Since the escalation of the war between Russia and Ukraine in February 2022, the EU's energy security has been in a state of disarray, with its member countries looking for new fuel sources that do not rely on Russian resources or transportation infrastructure.

The invasion caused a disruption in Russian oil and gas supplies, triggering a severe increase in Europe’s energy prices, economic stagnation, and an intensified need for alternatives to Moscow’s hydrocarbons.

Azerbaijan is an important source for the world's energy diversification after the Russian war against Ukraine escalated and Europe and the U.S. imposed sanctions.

Record volumes of Azerbaijani gas are being shipped through the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) to Turkey and Europe, and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline supplies Turkey, Israel, and the rest of the world.

Additionally, the country is a transportation artery for trans-Caspian trade, while the development of TRIPP has a potential to become an important trade corridor from Central Asia and the Caspian region to Turkey and beyond.

The alignment of the U.S. and Azerbaijan following the peace agreement could be the opportunity Europe needs to further guarantee its energy supply, so long as Western powers earnestly engage with Baku.

President Trump has expressed support for countries seeking to reduce their purchases of Russian oil and other energy products, and imposed secondary tariffs on countries buying oil from Russia in August.

Azerbaijan welcomes deepened relations with Europe as it grows its presence on the global stage as well, with its President, Ilham Aliyev, touting the country's "strategic role in enhancing energy security and diversifying supply routes across Europe and beyond" in his speech at the UN General Assembly.

As tensions cooldown between Azerbaijan and Armenia, leaders in the West need to ensure that they create trust and reevaluate policies that can stymie the progress of peace and increased trade.

For example, the European Parliament called upon the EU to cut ties with the Azerbaijani gas industry over concerns associated with Baku's actions during the 2023 fighting with Armenia, but the EU members continued the gas trade, disregarding the Parliament's misguided position.

In America, Section 907 of the 1992 Freedom Support Act, preventing U.S. aid to Baku, remains in place.

Though enforcement has been waived by the Trump administration, it requires an act of Congress to permanently repeal it.

This has met with some opposition in the legislative body at a time when confidence building is crucial.

The uncertainty sustained by this antiquated piece of legislation, which was spearheaded by the Armenian diaspora in the U.S. in the 1990s, limits the West's capacity to engage with the Caucasus at a critical juncture when key competitors, including Iran and Russia, stand to lose influence over the region.

While Baku's past actions do not need to be excused, ignoring the opportunity to tighten relations now only weakens energy security for both the U.S. and Europe and leaves an opening for actors like Russia and Iran, and eventually China, to promote their own interests.

Following decades of relative neglect, the United States is beginning to establish itself as a lucrative trade and investment partner for Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Simultaneously, and in coordination with Washington, Baku, and Yerevan, European nations should become more involved in the TRIPP, as it can provide substantial economic and strategic value to Europe.

Amidst a changing geopolitical landscape, America and European countries need to seize opportunities to secure their influence and meet their needs, lest they get left behind on the global stage in the face of the fierce competition by China, supported by its allies Russia and Iran.

Wesley Alexander Hill is the Assistant Director of the Energy, Growth, and Security Program at the International Tax and Investment Center. Wesley is an expert on grand strategy, geo-economics, and international relations with a regional specialization in China, Eurasia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Wesley has unique expertise concerning Chinese influence in Central Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, Chinese foreign and macroeconomic policy as well as Sino-American competition. Wesley can also be followed on Forbes, where he is a contributor. Read more of his reports — Here.