Immediately before Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in February 2022, China and Russia jointly declared their "friendship without limits."
In the subsequent years of Russian military underperformance, it might be tempting to dismiss the Sino-Russian cooperation as empty rhetoric. However, drastic Chinese escalation, such as an invasion of Taiwan, which could be possible as early as 2027, could abruptly change things.
Still, some in Washington believe that Russia can be turned against China. This is a dangerous illusion, based on fundamental misunderstandings of China’s view of Russia as a strategic asset as well as the current Russian leadership’s willingness and ability to engage with the West.
This misconception not only can ruin American chances of containing Russia — it could also inadvertently strengthen Beijing’s hand.
Russia needs China far more than China needs Russia. For Russia, China is an invaluable market and supplier of credit and military equipment.
Chinese chemicals for rockets, military attack drones, and numerous dual-use goods sustain the Russian defense industrial base. China is keeping Russia’s economy on life support despite sanctions imposed by the U.S. and Europe by acting as a conduit for trade, while the Chinese yuan dominates the Russian economy.
Even if the Kremlin were to consider pivoting against China, Russian business and military leaders would likely vehemently protest.
The scale of Russian dependence on China is not matched by either China’s reliance on Russia or the size of Chinese material assistance to Russia. Russian exports to China are mainly raw materials that China previously sourced elsewhere but now gets from Russia at below-market rates.
China has every incentive to keep Russia dependent — that means providing just enough aid to avoid a catastrophic defeat, but not enough for a decisive victory.
For China, the only outcome that would be negative would be a decisive Russian victory. Partial victory or partial defeat will deepen Moscow’s dependence on Beijing.
The comparatively small scale of assistance China is giving Russia should not be misconstrued as either evidence of Sino-Russian tension or Russian leverage. The capture of Chinese nationals fighting with the Russian military in Ukraine serves as a stark example of this.
While small in number, these volunteers conjure images of when China and America clashed in Korea. The Chinese military was officially uninvolved. It was merely "People’s Volunteers" assisting the North Koreans.
While this assistance is flagrant, transparent, and likely to increase as the trade war between China and the United States intensifies, Beijing still benefits from plausible deniability. For this reason, much of the most vital assistance from China to Russia flows via intermediaries and conduits, especially in Central Asia.
Thus, one of the main hubs for sanction circumvention has become the Capital Bank of Central Asia in Kyrgyzstan — a country strategically situated between Russia and China. Payments for weapons and dual-use goods flow there from Russia via the A7 platform — Russia’s attempted alternative to SWIFT — where they are converted into dollars and yuan before being sent to China through accounts held by intermediary shell companies.
The role now played by Capital Bank of Central Asia was previously held by another Kyrgyz lender, Keremet, which the U.S. sanctioned in January 2025. Notably, several former Keremet managers have since joined Capital Bank’s leadership team.
A central figure of the A7 platform is PSB (formerly Promsvyazbank, also under sanctions), a key bank of the Russian defense sector, and its controlling shareholder is Ilan Shor, a fugitive Moldovan banker. He is another sanctioned pro-Russian oligarch, best known for accusations of fraud involving Moldovan banks and attempts to manipulate elections in Eastern Europe. Shor is an important link in the payment system between the Chinese and Russian defense industries.
These sanction-evasion schemes were easily uncovered, especially after Capital Bank was granted exclusive rights for all ruble-denominated operations with Russia. Previously, the bank had operated under the patronage of a Kyrgyz MP’s family.
At every stage, intermediaries facilitating Russia’s access to Chinese assistance openly changed their names and corporate structures.
Thankfully, headwinds seem to be shifting against Russia and China in the United States. Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., pointed out that Putin has broken every promise made to President Trump because Putin apparently thinks the United States, and liberal democracies generally, are weak.
At the same time, Trump himself has expressed justified indignation at Putin’s continued missile attacks against civilian targets amidst negotiations.
A large part of why the Russians act this way and view Americans with such contempt is not only our failure to support Ukraine through the most basic steps, like cutting off Chinese support where we can, but also because we continue to entertain fantasies about cooperating with an adversary.
Eroding the Sino-Russian alliance is in the vital interests of the United States. However, the West must be clear-minded in its capacity to disentangle Moscow and Beijing.
The centrality of cooperation between the two and China's leverage over Russia make the possibility of turning Russia against China impractical.
Instead, America would be better served by closing the many small loopholes China is using to dodge sanctions and aid Russia, signaling to the world that American endeavors are not so easily thwarted by proxies or loopholes.
Wesley Alexander Hill is the Assistant Director of the Energy, Growth, and Security Program at the International Tax and Investment Center. Wesley is an expert on grand strategy, geo-economics, and international relations with a regional specialization in China, Eurasia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Wesley has unique expertise concerning Chinese influence in Central Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, Chinese foreign and macroeconomic policy as well as Sino-American competition. Wesley can also be followed on Forbes, where he is a contributor. Read more of his reports — Here.
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