Poland held a presidential election on June 1.
The contest was between Karol Nawrocki, a conservative, and Rafal Trzaskowski, a progressive left winger of the European Union (EU) variety.
Nawrocki was endorsed by U.S. President Donald Trump at a White House meeting in April and by U.S. Department of Homeland Secutiry Kristi Noem. It should be noted that attended a CPAC conference in Poland, in May.
Trzaskowski appeared at a conference in Poznan with Barack Obama, John Kerry, and Francis Fukuyama. He was also endorsed by many European politicians.
The election was a nail-biter but Nawrocki won 51% to 49%.
The most significant issue of the campaign is Poland’s geopolitical choice: whether to subordinate itself to the European Union plans in defense, political, economic, and social policy or to chart a more independent course in alliance with the United States.
Two recent events were symbols of this confrontation.
In February whereas a result of the German election Friedrich Merz was slated to become the next chancellor, he exclaimed: "My absolute priority will be to … really achieve independence from the USA."
In the second event in April, secret withdrawal of U.S. troops from Rzeszow, the main hub of distribution of Western aid to Ukraine, caused a panic in Poland.
Eventually these troops were transferred to other local bases. Thus, most importantly, the anxiety of Polish voters is fueled by the credibility of security ties.
Germany, the self-appointed leader of the European Union, made a decision to pursue an independent defense policy.
But what is the German proposition for the defense of Europe? Its own military seems to be in worse shape than at beginning of the war in Ukraine.
Now, Germany wants to shore up the defense of Europe with plans whose main aim is to use them as a tool for centralizing decision-making of the EU, marginalizing Eastern Europe, and driving economic benefits toward its own industry.
Whether this effort will result in improvement of Europe’s ability to defend itself, is a secondary consideration.
The Trump administration made it clear that it expects more defense efforts from NATO members, not only to counter Russia but also to free the U.S. to confront new threats in Asia. East Europeans are making a maximum effort for both their own and mutual defense and buying arms from the United States.
The U.S. is committed to the defense of the eastern flank of NATO.
Secretary Noem talked about the construction of Fort Trump, already planned in 2020.
Thus, the U.S. presence has credibility and trust.
It's hard for Poles to imagine the German Army defending Warsaw when people are still alive who remember the World War II and its numerous atrocities, still traumatizing families.
In general, the United States is associated with liberty and prosperity, while the European Union used to be associated with the same. Now it is rather associated with stagnation, burning migrant ghettoes, and strangling bureaucracy.
The progressive candidate Trzaskowski is prepared to implement the agenda of so-called European values. These are first of all abortion on demand, same sex marriage, adoption of the euro, and the green new deal, which resulted in energy prices that are four times those in the United States.
The EU is holding up the implementation of its most controversial projects as not to spook voters. First, this is the imposed adoption of the migration pact, which will distribute Mideast migrants throughout Europe.
The previous conservative government resisted it and built a wall on the Belarus border to keep out migrants sent by Putin.
Later, it was assumed that the admittance of millions of Ukrainian refugees would take Poland off the hook but no.
Now Polish newspapers report that the German police drive into Poland at night and leave undesirable migrants on quiet country roads to be collected by Polish authorities.
Forty-nine migrant centers are already open and will undoubtedly be filled right after the election.
Second, as part of the EU- managed democracy, new hate speech laws are proposed, which impose high penalties on "incorrect" speech.
Romania adopted a draconian hate speech law right after its election when a progressive candidate won. Third, to enact this progressive agenda, attacks on the Catholic Church are intensifying with new prohibitions and threats of financial penalties. But the most important issue is that every new EU initiative is used to further centralize the political authority in the hands of the EU Commission, and deprive smaller countries, like Poland, of their veto power.
Because the election was so close, the campaign was full of vicious anonymous personal attacks, dirty tricks, and the current government’s denial of $10 million mandated public funds for the conservative Law and Justice party. There are allegations that foreign progressive groups, made up of the European Union itself, extensive German foundations and media, Soros organizations, and the US Democrat Party operatives, were involved in illegal agitation for the progressive candidate. These groups also had a significant influence on the outcome of the 2023 parliamentary election.
Dr. Lucja Swiatkowski Cannon is a senior research fellow at the Institute of World Politics in Washington, D.C. She has been a strategist, policy adviser, and project manager on democratic and economic reforms in Eastern Europe, the Baltics, and Central, South, and Southeast Asia for Deloitte & Touche Emerging Markets, Coopers & Lybrand, and others. She also served as an adjunct scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Dr. Cannon has a B.A., M.Phil. and Ph.D. from Columbia University where she was an International Fellow and IREX Scholar at Warsaw University, and the London School of Economics. Read more of Dr. Swiatkowski Cannon's reports — Here.
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