(Editor's note: The following opinion column does not constitute an endorsement for any political party, or candidate, on the part of Newsmax.)
Thinking of the early primary states, headin into 2024, if current polling holds true for them, Donald Trump will almost undoubtedly be the GOP nominee.
Historical data backs that up.
As of this writing, there do not appear to be any early primaries in which President Trump could be knocked out of the running by his opponents, as has happened in presidential politics decades past.
In 1952, President Harry Truman was defeated by Sen. Estes Kefauver in the New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary. Eighteen days later, Truman bowed out of the race that eventually saw Dwight David Eisenhower win for the GOP.
Even more famously, the 1968 New Hampshire Democratic Primary saw Sen. Eugene McCarthy nearly beating, and still capturing most delegates, against a sitting president: Lyndon Baines Johnson.
Nineteen days later, on March 31,1968, LBJ bowed out of the race.
Johnson's brilliant political career was finished.
On the Republican side, the 2000 Republican presidential primary in South Carolina saw a nasty campaign but one that effectively knocked down Arizona Sen. John McCain’s rising popularity against then Texas Governor George W. Bush with a 53-42% win for the challenger. This, in spite of later McCain wins in Michigan and Arizona.
The 2024 Republican presidential primaries are led by New Hampshire followed by South Carolina and Michigan in February; essentially following the same pathway as the Bush-McCain fight of 2000 and going forward.
President Trump is significantly leading the polls in each of these states.
In New Hampshire, often seen as the most important presidential primary, the lead of Mr. Trump has increased into the high 40s percentage-wise, while that of his only double-digit polling challenger, Gov. Ron DeSantis, Fla., has decreased and is in danger of polling below 10%.
Only Vivek Ramaswamy has edged towards double digits in that state.
In South Carolina nearly the same scenario holds true for Trump, DeSantis, and Ramaswamy. Michigan repeats this trend with Trump running away with over 60% polling while Gov. DeSantis is dropping and there is a slight bump for Ramaswamy.
Clearly those labeled populist Republicans (i.e. businessman who are non-career politicians) are gaining ground in the early, important primaries while those labeled establishment Republicans are losing ground. Amazingly even Gov. DeSantis, R-Fla. has lost some steam.
The most important thing for the Sunshine State governor in 2024 will not be whether he will win, but rather, like the 1990 New York governor’s race, ensuring a that conservative, like himself, can sufficiently score strongly in defeat, setting up possible victory in a future election.
Concurrently, Ramaswamy voters are closely aligned with Trump voters.
Therefore the choice between the two is relatively simple, with most overwhelmingly supporting the most recent Republican president.
Meanwhile, the establishment Republicans show no sign of dropping out and coalescing behind a single candidate in time to mount a serious challenge to Mr. Trump.
In politics, a day can seem like years and years can seem like a day.
Anything can happen and, in the words of Robert Kennedy, "you (a political figure) can be finished off very quickly."
However, in the current '24 campaign season scenario, it appears only something even more earth-shattering than indictments will cause Mr. Trump’s star to fall in 2023, 2024 and beyond.
*Views expressed in this article are those of the author and not those of any government agency.
Larry Provost has written for Townhall, Fox News, The Baltic Times and InFocus (Jewish Policy Center) and has appeared on several television outlets, including “FOX News @Night with Shannon Bream." He holds degrees from several colleges, and is a Veteran of the World Trade Center search and rescue, Afghanistan, and Iraq. He and his wife are adoptive parents. Read more Larry Provost reports - Here.