The fourth anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine revolves around the possibility of a negotiated peace.
U.S. President Donald Trump has proposed to Russia a peace deal, one based on Ukrainian territorial concessions and promises of future economic collaboration, as well as U.S. investments.
Concurrently, Western security guarantees must be created to ease fears of renewed Russian aggression, not only in relation to Ukraine but to Europe in general.
In view of Russian disinterest in these proposals, President Trump started a series of campaigns to create political and economic pressure on Russia.
The first of which was the operation to remove the Putin ally Maduro as the leader of Venezuela, which was involved in helping Russia through shadow fleet operations, money laundering and drug and immigrant smuggling.
This was followed by seizures of shadow fleet ships, carrying sanctioned Russian oil, to deprive Russia of its illicit oil income that funds the war.
More surprising was the U.S. intervention in the Armenia-Azerbejdzan dispute, with a February visit by Vice-President JD Vance, in an area of traditional Russian control.
The newest development in this area is Elon Musk's decision to deactivate illegal Russian Starlinks, operating near the front lines.
It caused a destabilization of the Russian military front by preventing operations of Russian drones and tactical command and control systems.
This breakdown facilitated a renewed Ukrainian military offensive in southern regions, reportedly achieving great success.
However, the end of war is not in sight.
This war is not about territory, but Russia's desire to control Ukraine and deprive it of its independence and sovereignty.
Secondly, it is about cowing Europe into deferring to Russian political and economic wishes on terms, established by Vladimir Putin.
Putin has been telling Russian society for years how the decadent West wants to destroy pure and innocent Russia, using proxies such as Ukraine.
The preemptive war launched by Russia against Ukraine was only supposed to forestall such a development.
Numerous times, Putin likened this war to "The Great Patriotic War" as World War II against Hitler is called in Russia, which is about the only thing Russians still agree on.
Additionally, Russia has been waging a "hybrid war" against Europe by constant cyberattacks, damage to critical infrastructure, sabotage of railways and airports or arson, or directing illegal aliens.
The Putin regime went so far in advancing this narrative that most of Russian society fully accepts it. To pull back now and accept a compromise negotiated settlement might imperil the Putin regime itself.
But the most important goal of the Russian aggression is the revival of the position of Russia as a great power.
As Zbigniew Brzezinski said over many years, to achieve that, Russia must have control of Ukraine.
It's only with Ukraine, with its strategic position, its cultural history as a center of the Eastern Orthodoxy, its agricultural and mineral resources. can Russia be a great power.
Ukraine is very valuable.
However, Russia as a great power with its imperialistic ideology, is a threat to peace in Europe and globally.
It would lead to the intensification of revisionist demands and provocations and international instability.
Further, Russia, probably in partnership with China, would impose its own model of international order based on the concert of great powers, spheres of influence, and hegemony.
In response, many countries would try to obtain nuclear weapons as an insurance against outside intervention, thus making the world even more unstable.
Only the United States is able to guarantee a peaceful global order.
There is only one solution to keep peace.
The West must discredit and defeat the Russian imperial project and its policy of revisionism.
For lasting peace, it must try to greatly moderate and restructure the widely shared Russian political culture of violence, authoritarianism, and outright imperial fantasy.
Dr. Lucja Swiatkowski Cannon is a senior research fellow at the Institute of World Politics. She was a strategist, policy adviser and project manager on democratic and economic reforms globally for Deloitte & Touche Emerging Markets, Coopers & Lybrand, and others. She's been a scholar at the CSIS. Dr. Cannon is a graduate of Columbia University, where she was an International Fellow and IREX Scholar at Warsaw University, and the London School of Economics. Read more Dr. Swiatkowski Cannon Insider articles — Click Here Now.