With five days to go before New Jerseyans elect a new governor, few — if any — are predicting a winner in the increasingly tight contest to succeed lame duck Democrat Gov. Phil Murphy.
But more than a few observers believe the key to the outcome may well be someone who is not on the ballot but will have an impact on the race one way or another — President Donald Trump.
The just-completed Emerson College Poll, released Wednesday night, showed Democrat Rep. Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli in a virtual tie, 49% to 48%, among likely voters.
But what is significant is that this is the tightest any poll unaffiliated with a candidate has shown the race to be and it confirms that momentum is clearly with former state legislator and near-successful 2021 GOP nominee Ciattarelli.
Where Sherrill led by double digits in polls throughout most of the year, she held a 52% to 45% lead in the Fairleigh Dickinson University poll two weeks ago. Now, Emerson's numbers show the race a toss-up.
"Jack can win and he's clearly peaking at the right time," veteran GOP consultant Ed Rollins, manager of Republican Christie Whitman's upset win of the governorship in 1993 and an adviser to Ciattarelli's primary opponent, told Newsmax.
"The key is Trump getting his supporters to turn out," he added. "His name isn't on the ballot and when that is the case, his supporters sometimes don't vote for all the Republican candidates. Trump has to change this."
As he left for his Asia trip, the president — who endorsed Ciattarelli before the Republican primary in May — issued a strong statement on the GOP nominee's behalf, telling reporters, "Jack is going to be great and he's going to cut [New Jersey] energy bills in half."
Warning Garden State voters that Sherrill as governor "would send your prices soaring and make New Jersey more expensive than it already is," Trump said her election would mean the state will go down in a "death spiral."
After he returns from Asia, Trump added, he would be "out campaigning for Jack" — a bit difficult to do because he returns to the U.S. Thursday and the election is Tuesday."
Last year, Trump drew a stunning 46% of the vote in New Jersey. Part of his strong showing was due to an unexpected performance among Latino voters, who comprise 22% of the New Jersey population.
In Passaic County, which is 70% Latino, Trump defeated Kamala Harris by 3 percentage points four years after he lost to Joe Biden by 16 points.
Ciattarelli is making an all-out effort to woo Latino voters and has a strong organization within the Latino faith-based community. In addition, he has been boosted by the endorsement of seven Democratic elected officials. These include North Bergen Mayor Nick Sacco and Garfield Mayor Everett Garnto Jr., who announced he was switching parties to campaign for Ciattarelli.
Balancing MAGA supporters with rogue Democrats is a difficult performance. But as the curtain begins to come down on the New Jersey race for governor, it has made the contest one pundits and politicians nationwide will be watching Tuesday.
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.
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