Barely 48 hours before votes are counted in the special election for Tennessee's open 7th U.S. House District, Republican Matt Van Epps remains the narrow favorite to keep the seat in GOP hands.
A just-completed Emerson College Poll shows former state commissioner of general services and retired Tennessee National Guard Lt. Colonel Van Epps — who has President Donald Trump's strong endorsement — eking out a lead over leftist Democrat state Rep. Aftyn Behn by 48% to 46%, with another 2% going to third-party candidates.
In a district where Trump won more than 60% of the vote last year and which sent a Republican to Congress for 53 straight years, a win by Behn would be nationwide news as well as a blow to Republican control of the narrowly divided House.
The resignation of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., will take effect Jan. 5, and thus reduce the present GOP edge from 219-to-213 seats to 218-to-213.
A Democrat pickup of the district would make the Republican advantage only 217 to 214 — which would mean Speaker Mike Johnson and the Republican leadership would require all but two GOP House members to win on any critical vote.
"And following the [government] shutdown, Trump's numbers are now in the toilet," said one former GOP officeholder in the Volunteer State who requested anonymity. "So if there is no turnout of the hard core MAGA voters, Behn could win.
"And if Democrats are energized — which they clearly seem to be after their wins across the country last month — an upset is possible."
This source's reference to Trump's numbers may be an exaggeration. Emerson's numbers show 47.1% approval districtwide — certainly down from the president's performance at the polls in 2024 but not exactly "in the toilet."
The same source pointed out that "it's possible that the supporters of the most conservative of the four primary contenders, state Rep. Jody Barrett, are staying home due to the heavy-handedness of President Trump in the primary endorsing Van Epps and that of Club for Growth — which spent about $1 million against him.
"Jody was thought to be ahead in the primary and regarded as a future Freedom Caucus member, so some D.C. 'powers that be' got involved to derail his candidacy — or so he and his supporters believe."
Trump has underscored his support for Van Epps, most recently in a post on Truth Social Sunday night calling on "all America First Patriots in Tennessee's 7th Congressional District, who haven't voted yet, to please GET OUT AND VOTE."
In the past week, several unusual statements by Behn — a former social worker and community organizer — have resurfaced.
Speaking last year on a radio program, she said she was "uncomfortable" with opening legislative sessions with a prayer and that as a more secular person, "I have a hard time when religion is at the core of everything we do in the Legislature."
News clips have also resurfaced showing Behn in 2019 leading a protest at Republican Gov. Bill Lee's office demanding punishment for a state legislator accused of sexual misconduct.
When Behn is forcibly removed from the office, the film shows, she begins wailing.
In his Truth Social post, the president claimed Behn "hates Christianity, will take away your guns, wants Open Borders, Transgender for everybody, men in women's sports, and openly disdains Country music.
"She said all of these things precisely, and without question — IT'S ON TAPE!" Do not take this Race for granted."
No one will say for sure what the outcome will be Tuesday in Tennessee's 7th District. One thing is certain: Whatever the outcome, it will be national news, reported and analyzed across the country by Wednesday morning.
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