In the past two weeks, Elon Musk has vowed to launch a third political party with which to seek revenge against Republicans in Congress who enacted President Donald Trump's "big, beautiful bill" last week.
At first glance, the idea of a new third party bankrolled by the multibillionaire Musk is enough to cause sleepless nights for any Republican House member or U.S. senator facing the voters next year. With recent surveys showing that up to 66% of American voters wanting a new political party, it would seem that Musk's money could fuel considerable outrage at the polls — and at the very least, cause the defeat of some Republican officeholders who backed Trump on what was clearly the most important measure in his administration so far.
But a deeper dive into the nuances of starting a third party shows that Musk's task is more formidable than it appears. A group of political scientists who spoke to Newsmax agreed unanimously that Musk's dream has no chance of going anywhere in 2026.
"If Elon Musk is serious about starting a new political party, I would not underestimate him," said Luke Nichter of Chapman University in California, author of the critically acclaimed "1968: The Year That Broke Politics."
"But he will find it's far harder than what George Wallace had to do to get on the ballot in all 50 states as an independent candidate in the 1968 presidential election. Musk will also have to navigate 50 sets of state laws pertaining to filing candidacies, having primaries, and holding conventions."
Noting that the state rules governing ballot access have made it increasingly more difficult for third party candidates since Wallace ran in 1968, Nichter added that "few things unite Democrats and Republicans like third-party challengers."
But, Nichter added, "that is not the reason the man who builds electric cars, offers satellite internet to residents in remote parts of the Earth, and launches rockets into space will fail. He will fail because his effort is in response to a passing political moment. Unless his party stands for something more, the political talent he recruits will see how much easier it is to have a political career in one of the two major parties."
Veteran North Carolina political analyst Marc Rotterman agreed. Echoing Nichter's point about the difficulty in securing ballot access in all 50 states, he pointed out that "many secretaries of states will deliberately slow walk the process to make ballot access deadlines."
"If Elon is truly concerned about the debt," said Rotterman, "in my view, he should support Republican House and Senate candidates in the midterms who share his views on reducing the size and scope of government. And he might also consider supporting a balanced-budget amendment to force government to live within its means."
Mark Rozell of George Mason University told us he doubted Musk has thought carefully about the difficulties of getting ballot access for a new political party in all 50 states. In Rozell's view, "he may have a big platform for posting provocative ideas about politics and government but that doesn't mean he knows how to make the system work as he wishes."
"Ballot access is one area where both the Democrats and Republicans are in agreement — make it as difficult as possible for rival parties to obtain and retain ballot access," said Wayne Thorburn, onetime executive director of the Texas GOP and author of the much-praised "Red State: An Insider's Story of How the GOP Came To Dominate Texas Politics."
"It is evident from his DOGE [Department of Government Efficiency] efforts that Musk has virtually no understanding of the American political and governmental processes," Thorburn told us. "I am confident he has no understanding of what is required to obtain ballot access for a new party in the 50 states.
"He will spend an enormous amount of money — enormous to you and me, not such to him — and achieve little. Even more difficult is convincing American voters to support a third party once that party does actually achieve ballot success in a few states.
"Musk appears to have no real plan," Thorburn said. "Does he want to run someone only for president, as Wallace and [Ross] Perot did? Or does he really want to build an alternative party that seeks to elect people to Congress?
"Is this a short-term effort directed against Trump? Or is he focused on the Republicans who backed the 'big, beautiful bill?' In the end, this is all bluster and talk with no realistic plan of action or even objective," he said.
Donald Critchlow of Arizona State University, author of three books on the Republican Party, told Newsmax: "For all the excitement generated by Elon Musk's announcement that he was forming a new America Party, it's highly unlikely that this effort will go far. Third parties usually don't.
"Modern American history is littered with failed efforts of third parties. Theodore Roosevelt's Progressive Party in 1912 was resurrected in 1924 only to fail. Texas millionaire Perot formed the Reform Party. He won 8.4% of the popular vote" in 1996, Critchlow said.
"Third parties suffer from three problems: getting on the state ballot, which is expensive to gather signatures; attracting candidates, especially in state races, that are not nuts; and finally, attracting voters. Although early polls might suggest that voters will mark their ballots for a third party, when push comes to shove and they are in the voting booth — or these days at the post office — they stick with the major parties.
"Elon Musk will go down in history books for spaceships and electric cars, not as a man who transformed American politics," he said.
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.
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