Barely 24 hours after he made his candidacy for speaker official in a letter to his fellow GOP, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., has emerged as the early front-runner in what will likely be a pivotal first vote on Tuesday.
But insiders say while Scalise will grab a majority in Tuesday's GOP conference vote, he will not get the 218 votes needed to win the speakership on the House floor.
The floor includes House Democrats. If a number of Democrats don't vote, Scalise may survive and win despite additional GOP "no" votes.
McCarthy's election took one week and 15 ballots before he secured the speakership.
But the difference in next week's vote is that while McCarthy had no serious challengers, this time there will be multiple candidates.
Here's the current state of play:
Steve Scalise is the front-runner. But there are issues.
He has strong conservative credentials, but at 57, he has health issues. Serious gun wounds from the attack on the Congressional baseball game have taken their toll.
Earlier this year he announced he was diagnosed with blood cancer and continues with chemotherapy. He wears an N95 mask due to the cancer. His condition has unnerved some members.
Members, many of whom like Scalise, doubt he has the physical health to handle the arduous job of speaker, as well as the demanding travel schedule required during next year's presidential election.
Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, popular among conservative activists, finds a strong group of more establishment Republicans in the House that will never find him acceptable.
He also has some MAGA ("Make America Great Again") worries.
A source close to Donald Trump told Newsmax the former president thinks Jordan's oversight of the Judiciary Committee has made big headlines but never cuts deep enough to stop President Joe Biden's politics of justice.
"If Jordan was stronger and feared, the DOJ and FBI would never have unleashed the legal attacks on Trump," the source said.
Rep. Kevin Hern, R-Okla., chair of the House Republican Study Committee (RSC), has strong conservative credentials and appears popular with the Freedom Caucus and establishment types.
The RSC has become the main engine of conservative ideas and has over 157 members. Hern may be the ideal compromise candidate.
Other candidates may still emerge as the battle behind closed doors continues on Capitol Hill.
On Wednesday, sources told Newsmax that Scalise gave an excellent presentation to a closed-door meeting of the Texas Republican delegation.
With 25 Members, the Texas delegation is considered one of the most important.
"I'm undecided right now, but I'll probably end up voting for Scalise," one Lone Star State lawmaker who requested anonymity said.
If that sentiment holds, Scalise could be the permanent front-runner or the first sacrificial lamb.
If he is unable to secure the votes of almost the entire GOP caucus, his election will fail on Wednesday.
With strong multiple candidates in the race like Jordan and Hern, some of their supporters will balk at giving Scalise the near unanimity he would need to become speaker on early votes.
Failing to get the ring on the first or opening ballots, the caucus will likely search for a new consensus candidate.
Still, many lawmakers who spoke to Newsmax left little doubt they were undecided at this point and wanted to see more from the speakership hopefuls.
Freshman Rep. Mike Collins, R-Ga., seemed to speak for many colleagues Wednesday evening when he told Newsmax, "I'm not backing anyone right now and am not leaning to anyone."
"Quite honestly, I'd like to see someone with business experience as speaker — someone who can tell us the goals we want to reach and set deadlines," he said. "That's what we really need."
For now, while Scalise can be considered the candidate with early movement, the actual front-runner in the race for speaker of the House is undecided.
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.